Keeping it real

Honest.

That was until last week's Capitol Issues Forum and a talk with polling guru Ed Sarpolis, who served up answers to questions I hadn't even considered. It was, after all, an odd election: A convincing sweep by Republicans, except for the U.S. Senate; a beatable incumbent governor who won; and lackluster campaigns.

Sarpolus, the founder and executive director of Target-Insyght, is a pollster, analyst and strategist, a player, and for the last 20 years and very much an insider in  the state's political subculture.

He started off with the governor's race between Rick Snyder and Mark Schauer, neither of whom, he said, have much charisma, that is, no personal connection to voters or the base of their parties. He asked this question:

“Does anyone here know whether Mark Schauer is married or single, or whether he has kids?”

No one did.

He asked about Snyder's family. Same response. I only knew because I researched it for a previous column, and the particulars — three adult children and a wife named Sue — weren’t easy to find. Snyder does refer to his family on his official governor website. As for Schauer, this is on his campaign website: “Mark and his wife Christine live in Battle Creek. Mark spends his free time herding his rescue dogs, Sheila and Shep, and chasing after his five grandchildren.”

Not a bad image — family man, dog lover, grandpa. But how many voters saw that side of Schauer? Certainly, it couldn't have hurt him.

Sarpolus' point was that voters had trouble relating in personal ways to either of the candidates. Gary Peters, on the other hand, welcomed voters into his life. Maybe his TV spots were a bit goofy at times — an old sweatshirt, holes in his shoes and teasing from his kids and wife. But he came across as genuine, likeable and electable.

Sarpolus also posed this question: “What did Snyder do for Republicans?”

It wasn't Detroit.

He expanded Medicaid, or as Sarpolus put it, instituted “Snyder care.”

Right-to-Work, after all of the fuss, hasn't changed much and isn't a meat-and-potatoes issue for the party faithful.

And Schauer neglected the Democrats. Sarpolus said that the party focused on two issues: the tax on pensions and education spending. These were cast as the themes that would attract independent voters. There was little emphasis on social issues like the so-called Republican war on women or income inequality.

“They just never talked to their base,” Sarpolus said of both candidates.

And the base response was tepid.

Sarpolus' exit polling suggested that 625,000 Democrats didn't vote, which is somewhat better than the 734,000 noshows in the 2010 mid-term election. He said the Democratic strategy was based on a strong absentee vote — which it got — and a big turnout — which it didn't.

He questioned the decision by Schauer to spend his last six weeks campaigning in Detroit seeking to boost black voter turnout but never really addressing issues that affect that community, like water shut-offs or the bankruptcy Grand Bargain. Sarpolus also questioned the Democrats’ failed strategy to win control of the House of Representatives rather than protecting what they had.

One of the casualties of this approach was Eaton County's Theresa Abed, who lost in the 71st House District by just 310 votes to Republican Tom Barrett.

“The question for the Democrats is what they could have done differently,” Sarpolus said. “They have to make a decision on why a newcomer was able to beat their candidate.” He explained that the district was designed by Republicans to be evenly split between the parties — a 50/50 district. But he said Peters did well in mid-Michigan and so did Schauer.

There were more Democrat voters than in 2010; a hold was possible.

“Everything comes down to money, troops or energy.”

He suggested that Democrats are in a deeper hole than they need be coming into the 2016 election, a presidential year, where they usually win additional seats. For the Democrats, especially, how that election plays out in the state may depend on how actively the presidential candidates campaign in the state.

Looking ahead to 2018, the next gubernatorial race, Sarpolus sees candidates positioned for the job in both parties. For the Republicans, he expects Attorney General Bill Schuette to run. He has statewide name recognition and has served in Congress and as a Michigan Court of Appeals judge, among other offices.

On the Democratic side he suggested that likely candidates will be Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan and Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel.

Duggan is a former Wayne County prosecutor, deputy Wayne County executive and, before becoming mayor, president and CEO of the Detroit Medical Center. Hackel was elected Macomb County sheriff in 2000 and became the county's first executive in 2010.

All three bring "charisma" to their campaigns. Schuette features his family prominently.

We can only wait.