And the Oscar goes to...

Expect some close races in Sunday night's Academy Awards

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Forget Christmas: For filmmakers, the most wonderful time ofthe year is Oscar season, a time when they do everything they can (andsometimes more than they’re allowed to) in order to take home one of thoseprized statuettes. Making movies is all good and well, but making big money offof them — that’s the real work.

This Sunday’s Academy Awards will see a number of surethings, a few close races and at least a couple of categories in which Sundaybecomes Anything Can Happen Day. Expect “Avatar” to handily clean up in thetechnical categories (visual effects, art direction, etc.). But when it comesto taking best picture, it may face some very tough competition. Even thebiggest moneymaker in history isn’t automatically guaranteed to take the goldon Oscar night.

Animated feature

Nominees:

“Coraline”

“Fantastic Mr. Fox”

“The Princess and the Frog”

“The Secret of Kells”

“Up”

Personal choice:

“Up”

Likely winner:

“Up”

Comments: Pixar regularly rules this category, and “Up” willkeep that record intact. Still, there’s no denying “Coraline” and “FantasticMr. Fox” are outstanding films, and “The Princess and the Frog” definitely hasits charms.

Supporting actress

Nominees:

Penelope Cruz, “Nine”

Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”

Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”

Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”

Monique, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Personal choice:

Monique, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Likely winner:

Monique, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Comments: In a strong field of contenders, Monique has theshowiest role and gives the fiercest performance. Cruz won last year for WoodyAllen’s “Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” which should make her a long shot. AlthoughFarmiga and Kendrick are both terrific in “Up in the Air,” it’s easy to imaginethem canceling each other out. Gyllenhaal gives a soulful portrayal of a lonelysingle mom in “Crazy Heart,” but it’s the other single mom in this category —Monique — that everybody’s talking about.

Supporting actor

Nominees:

Matt Damon, “Invictus”

Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”

Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”

Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”

Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Personal choice:

Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”

Likely winner:

Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Comments: Between “Messenger” and “Zombieland,” Harrelsonhad a great year, and his nomination is well-deserved. Even so, Waltz’scultured, calculating Nazi villain all but stole the show in “Basterds” andhe’ll probably steal the Oscar, too. Superb as Waltz was, Tucci is even betteras a serial killer who hides behind the mask of a quiet 1970s suburbanite in“Bones”; instead of playing up the man’s madness, Tucci concentrates on howbadly this deeply disturbed guy wants to pass himself off as a normal neighbor.It’s a spectacular, yet subtle piece of great acting.

Leading actress

Nominees:

Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”

Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”

Carey Mulligan, “An Education”

Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ bySapphire”

Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”

Personal choice:

Carey Mulligan, “An Education”

Likely winner:

Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side” or Meryl Streep, “Julie& Julia”

Comments: Two newcomers face two of the most-admiredactresses around, with Bullock tossed in as a wild card. Yes, Bullock managed amost impressive comeback last year with “The Proposal” and “The Blind Side”both hitting the jackpot at the box office (I’m sure she would have preferredit if “All About Steve,” her dismal stalker comedy that netted her a worstactress nomination from the Golden Raspberries, had stayed on the shelf for alleternity.) And perhaps her enduring popularity will result in an Oscar win,even though she’s merely good, not great, in “The Blind Side.” Mirren is nocompetition: She has a few strong moments in “Station,” but the film is mostlya yawner. Streep, on the other hand, has made the leap from perennial critics’darling to certifiable box office cash cow in recent years, headlining suchhits as “The Devil Wears Prada,” “Mamma Mia!” and “It’s Complicated.” She’sdelightful as Julia Child in “Julie & Julia,” going far beyond mereimpersonation to create a fascinating, full-fledged and very warm character.Good as she is, I’m still in awe of Mulligan, who single-handedly carries “AnEducation” with her stunning, funny and utterly beguiling portrait of a youngwoman growing up too quickly in early-1960s England; it’s breathtaking to watchMulligan easily change from bored schoolgirl to chic sophisticate and backagain.

Leading actor

Nominees:

Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”

George Clooney, “Up in the Air”

Colin Firth, “A Single Man”

Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”

Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”

Personal choice:

Colin Firth, “A Single Man”

Likely winner:

Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”

Comments: Freeman’s perfectly polished,sanitized-for-your-protection turn as Nelson Mandela in “Invictus” has no placehere: dull, dull, dull. The voters should have gone for his "Invictus" co-star Matt Damon's wildly funny portrayal of an unbalanced whistle-blower in "The Informant!" instead. Clooney managed to make a seemingly unsympatheticcharacter — a corporate ax man — into someone worth caring about in “Up in theAir,” and Renner was first-rate as the devil-may-care hero of “The HurtLocker.” The real race here, however, will be between Firth and Bridges. Firthhas never been better than he is in “A Single Man,” playing a gay collegeprofessor reeling from the loss of his longtime lover in 1962 California; it’sa beautifully detailed performance in which silences and stares communicatemore than words ever could. In just about any other year, the Oscar would behis. But Bridges has four previous nominations behind him (dating back to 1971)and his hard-drinking, self-destructive country singer is the shambling,staggering centerpiece of “Crazy Heart.” Can’t say I was completely crazy aboutthe film itself, but Bridges is thoroughly believable throughout.

Directing

Nominees:

James Cameron, “Avatar”

Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”

Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”

Lee Daniels, “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ bySapphire”

Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”

Personal choice:

Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”

Likely winner:

Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”

Comments: Five impressive nominees, two of whom used to bemarried to each other — yes, Cameron and Bigelow were husband and wife from1989-1991. He may have made the more financially successful film, but she madethe all-around better movie. Although “The Hurt Locker” has been criticized bysome for offering an inaccurate picture of life in Iraq, Bigelow establishessuch vivid characters and builds so much suspense it becomes a gripping,disturbing thriller.

Best picture

Nominees:

“Avatar”

“The Blind Side”

“District 9”

“An Education”

“The Hurt Locker”

“Inglourious Basterds”

“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

“A Serious Man”

“Up”

“Up in the Air”

Personal choice:

“An Education”

Likely winner:

“The Hurt Locker”

Comments: Don’t be fooled by the fact there are 10 nominees:This is very much a three-picture race between “Avatar,” “The Hurt Locker” and“Up in the Air.” Want to vote for a couple real long shots? Put your money on“District 9” and “A Serious Man.” Strangely, the excellent “Up in the Air,”which seemed to have enormous support after its first screenings, has somehowlost much of its momentum in recent months. So “Avatar” is the only obstaclestanding between “The Hurt Locker” and the award.

What are your personal picks? Who would you have nominated? Who should have been left out of the race? Please share your thoughts.

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