And the nominees are?

Posted

"So, who’s our next governor gonna be, Kyle?"

It’s the question on everyone’s mind because, really, nobody knows.

It’s not like four years ago when Dick DeVos and Jennifer Granholm had the stage to themselves. In fact, we have turn the clock back to 1982 for the last competitive gubernatorial primary on the Democratic and Republican side.

The truth is Michigan could wake up Aug. 4 to one of eight different general election match-ups, and I wouldn’t be surprised by any one of them.

The Republican gubernatorial primary is a four-way free-for-all among U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Attorney General Mike Cox, businessman Rick Snyder and Oakland County Sherriff Mike Bouchard. All four have real strengths. All four have real problems, and the polling is bearing that out.

Nobody is running away with this thing.

On the Democratic side, "Undecided" is winning with around 40 percent of the vote, meaning there’s a huge block of uninspired Democratic faithful who don’t know what they’re going to do Aug. 3.

House Speaker Andy Dillon? Unknown Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero? Who knows? They may not vote, and if they do, it’s possible they could play in the Republican primary.

The deciding factor in both of these races may not come for another week. Maybe it will be a power television ad, like the "Sleeping Judge" anti-Cliff Taylor ad or the Jennifer Granholm coffee cup ad. Maybe someone will suffer a colossal Howard Deanesque meltdown or find himself on the wrong side of a negative news story. But absent the spectacular, there is a path to victory for each of the candidates. I’ll lay it out in no particular order:

Mike Cox

Without question the best-run campaign of the six to this point, Cox has dominated on the fund-raising front and managed to stay competitive despite his inaction on the alleged Manoogian Mansion party in ’03 and his perceived one-time coziness with disgraced former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick.

Cox is staying ahead ofthe Kwame stuff with to-the-point television ads from former copsgushing over Cox’s integrity. Also, the Republican base is eating Cox’s$2 billion tax cut plan with a spoon, ambivalent to how this wouldignite an atomic bomb on the already hemorrhaging state budget. Cities,universities and health care programs for the poor would see statefunding all but obliterated under this piece of completely impracticalpolitical meat.

Pete Hoekstra

The lack of money theone-time favorite has raised is jaw-dropping. An $18,000 buy four weeksout from a general election? When your opponents are dropping $100K?Meanwhile, the congressman is burning money on overhead and spendingtoo many empty hours on his bike.

Hoekstra is finding away to lose this election when the cards were completely stacked in hisfavor. The guy has no real negatives, and with two open congressionalelections in West Michigan, voter turnout should be huge in his neck ofthe woods. It’s amazing how real the chances are that Hoekstra can blowthis.

Rick Snyder

You either liked hisSuper Bowl ad or you hated it. Either way, people have strong opinionson Rick Snyder, and that’s good. With anti-incumbent, anti-politiciansentiments strong, Snyder may be the right man at the right time. Forevery brilliant maneuver this campaign has made, though, there’s beenequal and corresponding headscratcher.

Does skipping outon the Republican debates really help? Why did he seem to disappearfrom the television screen in the April and May? Compared to his opponents’, Snyder’s policy papers are most wellthought-out and puttogether. They’re pragmatic and surprisingly moderate in theirapproach, which could attract independents and some Democrats. IfRepublican turnout is high, watch out for "The Nerd."

Mike Bouchard

He’s quietly staying inthe hunt by cashing in on his strong support in Oakland County andsoutheast Michigan. Polls of GOP voters in Oakland, Macomb and Waynecounties have Bouchard up. All the while, Bouchard’s burn-rate on hissurprisingly decent bank account is low. Bouchard is expanding hisreach and that’s good for him. Of all six candidates, he’s the best onthe stump and typically outshines his opponents in joint gatherings.

Bouchard is tryingto catch lightning in a bottle on the anti-illegal immigration issue,which helps with the hard right. He could eek this thing out if Cox’snegativessink him in Southeast Michigan and running mate Terri Lynn Land can help him connect to enough West Michigan folks.

Virg Bernero

Once Lansing’smayor informs Democratic voters that he’s their pro-labor, pro-choiceand pro-environment candidate, he wins. But there’s the problem.Bernero got started so late he has no money and the big rollers in theDemocratic Party either have no money or think their limited bankaccount is better spent elsewhere.

Bernero doesn’tnecessarily need to excite the Democratic base, yet. He just needs tolet people know he exists without shooting himself in the foot withsome glib comment that’s picked up by the media. Virg has a good shtickwith the "Speaker of the Mess," but, honestly, there’s no reasonBernero can’t win on the issues in this primary. The difference betweenhim and Dillon couldn’t be more obvious.

Andy Dillon

The Housespeaker’s best chance is keep up the positive, glowing commercials andhope to ride a sense of inevitability into the general election. All ofthe polling shows Dillon leading. If that and Dillon’s more ample bankaccount discourages typical liberal voters from voting, he can provethe Lansing political insiders right by winning.

Dillon is playingwell with the moderate intellectual because he is one, if you discounthis conservative views on such social issues as abortion, stem-cellresearch and gay issues — a big discount in a Democratic primary. Maybethat leaves him enough support to make this happen.

Thislong-winded analysis doesn’t really answer the original question,though, does it? Let’s do the short version: "So, who’s our nextgovernor gonna be, Kyle?" "I don’t know."

(Kyle Melinn is the news editor at MIRSnews.com. Melinn@citypulse.com.)

Comments

No comments on this item Please log in to comment by clicking here




Connect with us