Tough call

The outcome of the May 3 ballot proposal to increase Lansing’s property tax millage by 4 mills is anybody’s guess. Opposition appears strong on the south side.

Posted

Dale Schrader said he has an unusual perspective on the ballot proposal that is before Lansing voters. Schrader, an Old Town resident, owns 10 properties in the city, most of which he has fixed up and rents.

On May 3, Lansing voters will decide if the city should raise the operating millage rate by 4 mills, generating an estimated $8.5 million of new revenue for police, fire and roads services. Major cuts are proposed to those three services in light of a projected $20 million deficit for the next fiscal year, but the millage would help restore some of those services. City officials also say that a majority of homeowners — roughly two-thirds — won’t see a net increase on their property tax bills next year even with the millage. 

Schrader estimated the taxable value on each of his properties will go up $150 if the millage passes. That means Schrader could be paying $1,500 more to the city next year than he did this year, he said. 

“This might be unusual for me to say, but I’m actually for it (the millage). You can’t cut the Police and Fire departments right now. Even though it’s painful (to pay more), it’s important to me,” he said. “I think if we want to improve this city everyone has to do their part.”

Schrader owns an environmental remediation company based in Ithaca. He cleans up dilapidated or contaminated properties, or both, for a living. One of them is the old filling station in Old Town at the corner of Grand River and Capitol avenues.

But while Schrader said his opinion on the ballot proposal is unusual — the Lansing Regional Chamber of Commerce came out against the tax increase Tuesday, saying it hurts businesses — it signifies what many see to be an uncertainty at this point: Who will show up May 3 and how will they vote.

Of 22 people interviewed — from an administrative assistant walking her dog on the south side to Mayor Virg Bernero — no one seems to have a definitive sense of how this proposed millage hike is going to pan out. (Of the 22, 10 said they support it, eight said they are opposed, and four were undecided.)

Mark Grebner, chairman of the Ingham County commissioners and founder of Practical Political Consulting in East Lansing, said predicting outcomes of millage proposals — especially when they stand alone on a ballot — is nearly impossible. It’s not so cut and dry to be able to say people aren’t doing well financially, therefore they won’t vote to increase their taxes.

“It turns out that millages held by themselves have no continuity from one to the next,” he said. “You don’t have a regular group of voters. You do have people who apply for absentee ballots, but on Election Day, how many are going to show up (at the polls)? And who will they be?”

While he generally assumes they will be older, longtime residents of Lansing and property owners instead of renters, he has “no idea” what the turnout will be.

“On the one hand, you have people who don’t like to pay taxes, and (on the other) those who call the police occasionally,” he said.

City Clerk Chris Swope has to estimate the turnout to decide how many ballots to print and how many election workers he will hire. 

“It’s almost impossible to predict,” Swope said. “We don’t have any recent history of a special election on a millage here in the city. We’re kind of gauging it might be similar to a non-mayoral City Council election.” At the last one, in 2007, he said 7,000 voters turned out and another 3,500 voted by absentee ballot.

He said he is expecting a turnout of 10,000 to 23,000 of Lansing’s 81,963 registered voters. As of Friday, Swope’s office had mailed out 4,099 absentee ballots and received 2,238.

Even then, you’re left with who is coming out to vote.

For Bernero, who is supporting the millage, this is unchartered territory. It’s the first time he’s campaigned for a tax increase. 

“This is a huge shift for me,” he said, referring to the fact that he’s “actively supporting” a tax increase — even working the phone bank for the Keep Lansing Safe campaign which is countering the No More Taxes Committee. “I’ve never been through anything like this (a $20 million deficit). I’ve been in politics a long time,” the 47-year-old mayor said.

That fiscal uncertainty that Bernero says was thrust upon the city due to falling property taxes and state-sharing revenue is spilling into political uncertainty.

“I don’t know who will turn out,” he said. When Bernero’s working the phone bank, “I’m hearing more that it isn’t so much ‘what will it cost you?’ it’s ‘do you really need this?’” he said. “I just remind them that it’s about the quality of life you want. I’m not hiding any money.”

Peggy Vaughn-Payne, executive director of NorthWest Initiative, a nonprofit in the 4th Ward that works with low-income people, has a clear sense of what voter turnout will mean for the election.

“It boils down to financially being able to handle another expense if household income is cut,” Vaughn-Payne said, referring to residents whose property taxes would increase if the millage passes.

“Not to negate the importance of police and fire, but an increase in taxes for those still hurting is still real,” said Vaughn-Payne, who said she hasn’t decided how she will vote. “The big thing in the end is who comes out to vote. If folks that are hurting really come out, it’s going to be very interesting.”

“Everyone wants to have (strong police, fire and roads), but it might be too much burden if they’re already suffering,” she added. “It’s going to be a very interesting election.”

Lansing City Council regular John Pollard is treasurer of the No Taxes Committee, while Penny Gardner is treasurer of Keep Lansing Safe. Both are veteran campaign organizers and are coordinating efforts to knock on doors and make phone calls. Pollard led the successful opposition to a Lansing School District bond drive in Lansing 10 years ago, but he came up short in campaigns against the city’s parks millage renewal in 2005 and last year. 

Travel to the south side of Lansing and you’ll find yourself in territory that could be a major player in the election, political consultant Todd Cook said.

“The south side is a player because it tends to be more older voters,” who he said are likely to turn out in elections. “If it (the millage) fails, you’d have to see a significant number of no votes on the south side.”

However, Cook said that doesn’t necessarily mean a high south side turnout will mean the millage fails: “To a certain extent, both campaigns have an interest in getting to the south side.”

Of eight interviews conducted in three days with residents south of Interstate 496, only one resident supports the millage: Doris Collins, who lives near Everett High School and was walking her Schipperke dog, Lily, on Sunday. Six others oppose the millage, while another dog-walker near the Northrup and Cedar streets intersection was undecided.

Gordon Wilson lived in Lansing for more than 50 years but has since moved “to the other side of Waverly Road." He was sitting in an office at the Southside Community Center Thursday.

“I don’t think the thing’s gonna pass. Lansing can’t stand any more property taxes,” Wilson said. “The elderly vote in Lansing. Young people don’t really vote. (Interstate) 496 is just the dividing line.”

Up north to the 500 block of Foster Avenue on the east side, next-door neighbors have opposing signs out front. Jim Nelson, a sporting goods manufacturer, has the red and white “Vote No More Taxes May 3rd” in his yard, while his next-door neighbor, a retired “retail” employee who asked not to be identified, sports the red, white and blue “Police Fire Roads Yes! Vote May 3” about 15 feet away.

Nelson, who has lived in Lansing for 25 years, is skeptical when Bernero says the Police and Fire departments have to be cut so deeply — more than 100 employees and three fire stations. Nelson thinks the city can cut back elsewhere and considers himself a “common taxpayer.”

“I don’t know why people have so much trust in the government. I don’t understand why people would voluntarily increase their property taxes,” he said.

But Nelson’s neighbor, who has lived in Lansing for 30 years, understands, even though he is on a fixed income.

“I know that’s what they say. That’s how they see it,” he said referring to those who believe the cuts should be distributed elsewhere. “I don’t think we can stand to lose the services.”

Nelson’s neighbor is reserved and quiet, accepting the fact that many these days — thanks in large part to the Tea Party movement — are fixated on keeping taxes low. His tactic is to just do his part: “A guy came by here the other day (with vote yes signs). I thought it’d balance out my neighbor.”

Comments

No comments on this item Please log in to comment by clicking here




Connect with us