Early polls make for fun read

It could be ridiculously early to write about this, but if Mark Grebner is polling about it, it’s worth knowing about.

The year 2012 brings three open state representatives races with Democrats Joan Bauer, Mark Meadows and Barb Byrum all termed out on Dec. 31. And Grebner, the heart of Practical Political Consulting in East Lansing, is interested in what could happen in the Democratic Party primary in each of those seats.

The boundaries of today’s state House 67, 68 and 69 districts will change through redistricting, but it’s safe to say that the city of Lansing will still have a state representative seat. East Lansing and Meridian Township will probably share a second. Rural Ingham County will have the third.

Each of these developing contests for the Democratic nominations are shaping up differently, and Grebner’s polls bear this out.

Bauer’s Lansing-based district features two official candidates — Ingham County Commissioner Andy Schor and retired radio talk show host Walt Sorg. Kelly Bernero, the daughter of Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, is testing the waters, and it’s possible that Lansing City Councilman Derrick Quinney could run, if he can win re-election this fall.

Grebner’s poll of 86 respondents (margin of error 11 percent) is "quick and dirty" and shouldn’t be taken too seriously, as he is the first to admit. 

"It’s not just that we haven’t seen any campaigning yet, but that we don’t know who will be running or exactly where," Grebner said. "Nobody should pay too much attention to these results."

Yet, we do. Polling results for political junkies is like crack to an addict. We cannot get enough of it. If we don’t have the money to buy our own, we beg, borrow and steal to get other’s.

Grebner did these polls to satisfy his own curiosity after Byrum asked him to survey Ingham County voters on a hypothetical county clerk match-up next year between her and Lansing City Clerk Chris Swope. (She is way ahead.) That said, Grebner’s results are always worth noting. His statistical knowledge has been sought by The Daily Kos, among others, and while his sample sizes are small, his ability to micro-target is known throughout the state and county.

The results in the 68th, which Bauer represents, showed no clear front-runner. If Schor, Bernero and Quinney all run, it could be a very competitive race. And since the 68th District sports a 69 percent Democratic base, it’s not a stretch to say the winner of the primary will win the whole enchilada.

Bernero led the hypothetical field with 34 percent. Quinney had 30 percent and Schor 27 percent. Sorg’s 9 percent put him last. Sorg recently announced former Attorney General Frank Kelley is backing him, but Sorg’s background in radio is "not a great base" in a district like Lansing, Grebner said.

Next door in the East Lansing-Meridian Township 69th House District, which Meadows represents, former East Lansing Mayor Sam Singh is in as of Tuesday. The Democrat announced on Facebook that after "many months of contemplation and serious discussion with friends and colleagues, I decided that it was time for me to return to public life."

The only other serious Democratic name that is circulating is that of Susan Schmidt, Meadows’ chief of staff. Schmidt is also the former president of the East Lansing Board of Education.

Singh had a wide lead — 84 to 16 percent — among the 58 people asked but Grebner noted that Singh has been elected several times and Schmidt isn’t well known by the public.

In the rural 67th District, represented by Byrum, the candidates are still in the "talking-behind-the-scenes" stage, and it shows. A wide field of Republicans is looking at the seat — including several past challengers of Byrum and her mother, former Rep. Dianne Byrum —since the GOP legislature will likely tinker with it to make it more red in ’12.

Lansing Fire Chief Tom Cochran and Delhi Township volunteer firefighter Matt Bennett are feeling out the race on the "D" side, but neither has a large name ID with the people of south Lansing, Delhi Township and rural Ingham County. The results show 80 percent didn’t know. Cochran got 13 responses and Bennett one.

"I interpret this to mean that Cochran starts out with at least a small base, while Bennett seems to be unknown," Grebner said. "The margin of error is so large that nobody should pay any attention to this result."

Pay no attention to poll results? In the political world, that’s a hard thing to ask political junkies to do, especially with someone with Grebner’s reputation feeding the dirt.

(Kyle Melinn is the editor of the MIRS Newsletter. His column comes out weekly. He can be reached at melinn@lansingcitypulse.com.)