Like it or not, the Lansing area is, again, ground zero for one of the nation’s most competitive and expensive congressional elections.
It explains all of the TV ads.
Tom Barrett in a helicopter. Tom Barrett being 100% pro-life, allegedly promising to put abortion seekers in jail.
Curtis Hertel Jr. yakking it up with folks. “Liberal lobbyist” Curtis Hertel allegedly brokering a secret deal in Lansing that earned him a “six-figure contract.”
If you haven’t seen them, you will.
As for Sept. 20, more than $30 million in political advertising has been spent or reserved in the 7th Congressional District race, according to AdImpact. It would have been more if Hertel or Barrett had had primary challenges. The figure is nearly twice that of any other Michigan congressional race.
It’s an expensive race, in part, because the polling shows it is close.
Barrett, the Republican, ran in 2022, so his name ID started high. Early internal polling numbers showed him up at much as 8 percentage points.
In the last few weeks, though, Hertel, the Democrat, has come after Barrett hard on his pro-life/no exceptions position on abortion in paid ads, moving the race into toss-up territory. (Proposal 3, which put abortion rights in the state Constitution, passed by 16 points in MI-7 in 2022).
“Tom was going to start this race ahead. His name was going to be better known than Curtis’,” said Adrian Hemond, CEO of Grassroots Midwest.
When Hertel’s camp brought up abortion, Hemond wasn’t surprised. “He’s a Democrat, so he’s got to do it. It makes sense. The issue polls well in his district.”
The 7th Congressional is also expensive because it straddles two media markets.
Around 70% of the MI-7 constituents get Lansing broadcast TV. The other 30% live in the parts of Livingston County that get expensive Detroit TV, where rates cost five times more.
A third candidate is also on the ballot. Libertarian Leah Rachel Dailey, 42, of South Lyon, serves on at least one commission within the city and recently received a “Defender of Liberty” award from the Libertarian Party of Michigan. In the past several elections, the Libertarian candidate has received consistently a little short of 2% of the vote.
Barrett and Hertel’s campaigns know the costs, but both are convinced they’re going to win.
Barrett, 43, of Charlotte, sees the numbers working to his advantage. While he lost to U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin 51% to 46%, he and his allies were outspent 4:1. Also, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won reelection in this district by 10 points in 2022.
Even if Donald Trump doesn’t win in MI-7 — made up of Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston and Shiawassee counties — most expect him to keep it close, helping Republicans up and down the ballot.
Barrett also has a favorable-sounding resumé. Prior to eight years in the state Legislature, the U.S. Army veteran served 22 years in Iraq, Guantanamo Bay, Kuwait and the Korean DMZ, flying highly advanced helicopters, hence the choppers on his campaign signs.
Barrett also likes his odds against his opponent.
Unlike Slotkin in 2022, Barrett’s opponent is not a former CIA analyst and one-time defense department official for two former presidents.
Hertel, 46, of East Lansing, was Whitmer’s legislative liaison after serving two state Senate terms. He was on the Ingham County Board of Commissioners from 2001 to 2008 and was the county’s register of deeds following that.
His wife is the director of the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, his late father was Michigan House speaker, his brother is a state senator and his uncle was in Congress, among other relatives in public service.
At some other point in time, this lineage would be a positive. With voter skepticism high, Hertel leads with the title “Relentless Advocate for mid-Michigan.” His first introductory TV ad never mentions he even served in the state Senate.
A card he does play is his desire to work across the aisle, something he did well at in the state Senate, as has Slotkin, a member of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus.
“Progress comes from finding the spaces between people. Residents of MI-7 want reasonable humans in office,” said Hertel, bringing up his work in cutting taxes, cutting prescription drug costs and bringing manufacturing jobs back to Michigan.
“People are tired of loud talk and little action. Washington could learn a thing or two from Michigan, and I’m running for Congress to build on the bipartisan progress we’ve made in our state.”
Barrett’s record in the Legislature is unquestionably conservative. In 2021, he had the Senate’s most conservative voting record, according to MIRS News. In 2022, he was No. 2. He’s opposed mandatory vaccines before COVID was a thing. He’s on the record as being pro-life without exceptions.
However, Barrett is eschewing his hardline pro-life stance. From his viewpoint, the U.S. Supreme Court has let the states decide the issue. Voters in Michigan put abortion into its Constitution. Passing a nationwide abortion ban with a split Congress isn’t realistic. Why talk about it?
Rather, he’s relating himself to the working class, talking about southern border security, the $34 trillion national debt and opposing tax dollars going to companies headquartered in China, which he says is sending spy ballons over the country.
“I am investing all of my bandwidth to win this race to represent my community and this district,” Barrett said.
Both candidates see themselves with a pathway to win. They’re getting together Wednesday (Oct. 2) for a debate at WLNS with senior Capitol correspondent Tim Skubick.
As Hemond sees it, the race will come down to who votes.
“The question is, ‘Do white guys outside of Lansing, East Lansing and Delta Township come out to vote?’ If they do in large numbers, Curtis is in trouble,” Hemond said.
“Curtis needs women to show up to the polls, the younger the better and the more pro-choice the better.
“Tom is to the right of the mainstream in this district, but if those Trump voters show up outside of that city of Lansing and East Lansing, he could have a good night.”
— KYLE MELINN
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