Why all four U.S. Senate candidates can declare victory after finance deadline

Who has the edge in Michigan’s competitive U.S. Senate Democratic primary? 

U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed are all running spirited campaigns in the quest to face (presumably) Republican Mike Rogers a year from now.

There’s no public polling to go from, so let’s try this: On Oct. 15, the law required that all U.S. Senate candidates release how much money they’ve raised and spent from July 1 to Sept. 30, and depending on how you want to torture the numbers, you could make an argument that everyone won. Here’s how:

Stevens won because ... she raised the most money. The four-term House member raised $1.9 million in total receipts, a bit more than El-Sayed ($1.775 million) and McMorrow ($1.7 million).

More significantly, she has amassed $4.7 million this campaign season because she kicked in $1.5 million left over from her old congressional account into her Senate race. Stevens is also not too proud to take political action committee (PAC) money, which netted her another $106,055.

Among those in the Democratic field, she’s sitting on $2.6 million in cash on hand, which, considering her sizable payroll, isn’t a small accomplishment.

More dollars today mean more TV and streaming ads tomorrow.

McMorrow won because ... of the sheer number of people who opened up their wallets and purses to give to any of the candidates, she had the most.

The Federal Elections Commission only requires that those giving $200 or more have their contributions publicly reported.

Any way you slice it, McMorrow had more people give to her, which is a sign of not only future giving potential, but future votes ... if you consider that people will vote for the candidate for whom they write a check.

By my count, McMorrow had 1,459 contributors of at least $200, of which 678 (46.4%) live in Michigan. El-Sayed had 1,253 contributors, of which 508 (40.5%) live in Michigan. Stevens had 1,285 contributors, 396 (31.1%) from Michigan.

Rogers had 1,248 contributors, of which 521 (41.7%) hail from Michigan.

And these are only the contributions McMorrow was required to report. Her campaign is claiming 50,000 people gave it money this year. It’s impossible to verify that, but here’s why it’s believable: I could only track $1.14 million of McMorrow’s reported $1.7 million through the data reported through the Federal Elections Commission website. That means there’s more than $500,000 she raised in untraceable small amounts. 

For argument’s sake, let’s say all gave $20. That gets you 30,000 people, added to the 678 we already know about. 

If she did anything close to that in her first quarter of fundraising, McMorrow has a lot of potential voters.

Rogers won because ... he has $2.7 million in the bank, more than Stevens, and he doesn’t need to spend a dime of it until next summer. 

Since Rogers doesn’t have a competitive primary race, he’s able to take advantage of a joint arrangement with the D.C. Senate Republicans that gives him access to a bunch more money he can stockpile and spend in August, September and October 2026, when it really matters.

This quarter, he spent 39% of what he raised, a lower percentage than any of his Democratic opponents. The lower burn rate helps keep money around, too.

El-Sayed won because ... he stayed competitive with the rest of the field. He raised more than McMorrow, and burn rate is a lot better than hers, too. He also raised more from Michigan voters than Stevens, and his number of contributors was about the same as Stevens’ and Rogers’.

Winning by not losing works for El-Sayed. He’s easily the race’s most progressive candidate, and as long as it doesn’t look like he’s taking on water, endorsements from progressive groups like the Michigan Democratic Party’s Progressive Caucus will keep rolling in.

And as long as Stevens and McMorrow keep their attacks on each other (which they’re doing), El-Sayed only needs to run a fiscally disciplined campaign (which he’s doing) to win the primary.

(Kyle Melinn is the editor of the Capitol news service MIRS. You can email him at melinnky@gmail.com.)