Death has come for the AxMiTax ballot initiative

The AxMiTax ballot initiative to put a property tax elimination proposal before voters in 2026 is taking on water.

Circulators have run through the 180-day window during which they needed to collect the 446,198 valid signatures to get the initiative on the ballot.

Karla Wagner’s group has already extended their deadline to collect signatures three times, which means they’ll need to collect between 40,000 and 60,000 signatures a week to replace the ones that are older than 180 days while adding to that total.

It’s got no chance.

The idea sounded good on its face.

I mean, who loves paying their property taxes? If you’re buying a new home, the big bump you see in property taxes can be jarring.

But like many things in today’s political environment, something that sounds so overly simple tends to be too complex to be practical.

Property taxes generate between $17 billion and $19 billion in revenue for Michigan’s local governments. That’s local police, fire, parks, public health services, etc. They also account for about 15% of each local school district’s budget.

AxMiTax had a plan to make up the money. Eliminate the waste, fraud and abuse in the system. Make some cuts. The people in charge will figure out the rest.

Uh, yeah.

Here’s the rest: According to the Tax Foundation, replacing lost property tax with only a higher income tax would mean jacking up Michigan’s flat 4.25 percent rate to 11.93 percent.

In some counties, where jobs are scarce but vacation property is not, residents would see a 73 percent net tax reduction. But in Ionia County, where many commuters live, residents would see a 34 percent tax increase. Oakland County residents would see a 25 percent net tax increase.

A higher sales tax, you ask?

The Tax Foundation didn’t even attempt the calculation, concluding that there’s “no feasible sales tax rate by which an agricultural county or a bedroom community could replace its property tax revenue.”

Wagner could have attempted to cook up a feasible property tax cut plan. But the West Michigan real estate agent decided to run for governor, too.

Responding to the chorus of people excited about her vigor to fly to the sun with wax wings, Wagner decided to collect signatures for a gubernatorial bid at the same time as AxMiTax.

It should be a surprise to nobody that the wax melted, and she’s now hurtling back to earth.

The pissed-off people struggling with their property taxes aren’t enough to pull something this monumental off.

It’s enough to spring Republican office-seekers into action, though.

Longshot GOP gubernatorial candidates are talking about eliminating property taxes as their top priority.

The more realistic gubernatorial candidates are being more nuanced or vague about what can realistically be done about property taxes.

One idea is to put all new millage proposals or renewals on the November general election ballot, rather than “sneaking” potentially hefty tax increases onto off-year August or May ballots.

Mike Cox said he’s open to other proposals to give homeowners over age 70, small farmers, and other homeowners a property tax break on their primary residence.

Tom Leonard wants to prevent the property tax “cap” from being reset when a home is sold and would cap any increase at 5 percent.

House Speaker Matt Hall said he’s not supportive of getting rid of all property taxes, but he’s putting reform on his agenda.

Does any of this catch fire? With a Republican trifecta in 2027, I suppose it’s possible.

But even conservative Republicans realize that cutting taxes is squeezing a balloon. You press hard on one side, and the other side expands.

Remember the last time Michigan cut its property taxes? Our sales tax went from 4 to 6 percent after much consternation and a statewide ballot question.

That’s not going to stop Republicans from campaigning on cutting more taxes.

They know. A deep tax rate cut is completely impractical. Ginning up voters on the issue is quite the opposite.

(Kyle Melinn is the editor of the Capitol news service MIRS. You can email him at melinnky@gmail.com.)