Four things we learned after candidates opened up their books

If you can’t raise close to $1 million, you’re not even in the conversation about being Michigan’s next governor or U.S. senator.

It’s a reality that crashes down on candidates on days like July 25, when everybody was legally required to show their cards. How much money did they raise? How much did they spend? How much do they have in the bank?

It’s a year before anyone is voting, but if you can’t show you have the organization to scratch together enough money to boost your name recognition on TV and internet ads, then no message, no resumé, no position on issues will be good enough to get you more than 3% of the vote on Election Day.

So, what did we learn from July’s reports? Here are four of my biggest takeaways.

1. Mike Duggan is the real deal. Anyone who tells you that an independent gubernatorial candidate can’t win next year isn’t paying attention. Duggan garnered more donated dollars than any other candidate running for governor or the U.S. Senate in Michigan, and he did it without the ActBlue fundraising platform, a party apparatus, or out-of-state partisan campaign consultants.

Duggan didn’t become the mayor of Detroit because he charmed a majority of donors and voters with a silver tongue. He makes things happen, and successful business executives like that.

While 70% of Jocelyn Benson and John James’ donations came from unemployed or retired people who dabble in politics to keep themselves occupied, more than 70% of Duggan’s money came from people who have a job. These are Michigan-based CEOs, doctors, lawyers and executives. Duggan turned Detroit around. They figure he can do the same for Michigan.

While more than 50% of Benson and James’ donations came from out of state, 93% of Duggan’s contributors were from Michigan. Let that sink in.

2. Our former congressman, Mike Rogers, has the 2026 Republican U.S. Senate nomination wrapped up. President Donald Trump told Rogers’ only real threat, U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga, not to bother challenging the Republican establishment’s preferred candidate.

Huizenga said OK. Trump publicly endorsed Rogers. The Senate Republicans in D.C. are helping Rogers raise money through a joint account.

A few other people you’ve never heard of claim to be running. They’re wasting their time.

3. Maybe John James won’t be the Republican nominee for governor after all. The two-time U.S. Senate nominee ignored the president’s preference that he run for reelection in the competitive 10th Congressional District. That doesn’t come without consequences.

If Trump ends up endorsing James for governor, it’s not coming until James chases away his primary threats. He didn’t do that on July 25.

Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt raised marginally more money than James from June 1 until July 20. And he did it the old-fashioned way: Michigan fundraisers, Michigan-based political action committees and hustling dollars from a few high rollers within the party.

James has Dan and Pamella DeVos committing $5 million through an independent PAC, but Dick, Betsy and the rest of the DeVos family haven’t jumped on board, yet anyway. This is leaving James to pay a contractor to blast out a gazillion emails to loyal Republican voters across the country.

His D.C. connections aren’t giving away their money for his gubernatorial run, so James is counting on retirees from Arizona and South Carolina who saw his interview on Newsmax to give him $10 every month.

Maybe that’s all he needs. Maybe not.

4. Without ActBlue, how would statewide Democrats raise money? James is using the playbook mastered by the Dems through this one-stop-shop fundraising platform, which generated $16 billion for Democrats across the country by peppering suspected donors over and over with fundraising calls, texts and emails.

Benson, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II and Chris Swanson have all used it in their gubernatorial campaigns with varying success. It’s not free, but candidates lean on it to cut down on their “Dialing for Dollars” hours.

It’s money in the door to pay for your staff, but it’s not necessarily votes you can count on for later.

(Kyle Melinn is the editor of the Capitol news service MIRS. You can email him at melinnky@gmail.com.)