Seven big questions heading into 2026

It’s officially 2026! We’re electing a new governor, U.S. senator, secretary of state and attorney general. 

Since we’re looking at a solid 10 months of prognostications, let’s get things started with seven questions that will set the table for what we’ll see going forward.

1. Who will President Donald Trump endorse in the Republican gubernatorial primary? First, we need to ask if Trump will be in a position to endorse this summer. Trump’s polling numbers among Republican voters are still strong, but what happens if the Jeffrey Epstein Files solidly connect Trump to a child sex-trafficking ring? What if Trump can’t deflect away from cost of living/health insurance anxiety?

Trump always seems to massage and message his way out of troubles among his die-hard followers. Let’s assume he can do it again.

Trump wasn’t thrilled about U.S. Rep. John James saying no to re-election in his competitive MI-10 seat, but what happens if James solidifies an insurmountable lead come July, like Tudor Dixon circa 2022? 

Does he back a winner and take credit for pushing James over the top? Does he stay spiteful if the Republican field in MI-10 is floundering and take a walk? Maybe Mike Cox or Aric Nesbitt catch fire or …

2. Does Perry Johnson, Kevin Rinke or Tudor Dixon get into the race? Johnson is a multi-billionaire who can buy name ID instantly. The guy is so strange that it’s hard to imagine him winning in August. He could peel off some of James’ inch-deep, mile-wide support among passive Southeast Michigan Republican voters, though.

What Rinke was hoping to find with his “Rinke For Governor Part II” flirtations last year aren’t clear. The groundswell of support he needs is hidden if it exists at all. Rinke has a sliver of Johnson’s money and could probably gin up about half the support Johnson could buy. 

Polling has shown Dixon, the 2022 nominee, would make an immediate impact if she changed her mind and hopped into the race. She’d need money that she doesn’t have to keep things moving.

3. How will labor endorse in the open U.S. Senate primary? It’s hard to imagine the UAW, Michigan Education Association (MEA) and other majority labor unions won’t get involved in the most competitive Democratic U.S. Senate primary in more than 30 years.

It’s possible they all fall in line behind a common candidate. However, as long as Abdul El-Sayed, U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow all have a realistic shot at this nomination, it’s more likely each union picks its own horse, kinda like what happened in the 2002 gubernatorial primary.

4. Can Macomb County Clerk Tony Forlini win at the state convention? Arguably, the Republicans’ best chance to win a statewide seat in November is Secretary of State. The GOP has an experienced and likable candidate with Forlini, the Macomb County clerk. The Democrats’ field is shifting sands.

From John Smietanka to Kristina Karamo, Republican delegates have proudly thrown General Election-ready candidates overboard for broke, unknown strident conservatives who struggle to get 45 percent in November. We’ll see if they do it again.

5. Who does Mike Duggan pick as his lieutenant governor running mate? We could ask the same thing about Jocelyn Benson or possibly John James. Honestly, though, does it matter? No offense, but did Garlin Gilchrist or Shane Hernandez make any difference to the 2022 results?

From a political intrigue perspective, the Duggan pick is more captivating because it shows where he feels like he needs more help. West Michigan? Northern Michigan? Republican? Democrat? Non-partisan? Legislator? Corporate CEO? Unless the campaign is taking on water, it’s doubtful we’ll know much before the state’s Sept. 1 deadline.

6. Does Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II stay in the Governor’s race? Struggling to gain traction and running without Whitmer’s endorsement, Gilchrist’s cash on hand total is $350,000. It sounds fine until you realize Duggan, James, Benson, Cox and Nesbitt have at least $2 million each.

The latest whisper campaign has Gilchrist shifting focus to a Secretary of State bid, but with four other candidates (including Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum and two other African Americans from Detroit) in the race, that’s not necessarily a sure thing either.

7. Will the knives come out for Matt Hall if Republicans lose control of the state House? All this back-channel talk about rank-and-file House Republicans not liking the heavy-handed Speaker could be seriously overblown. We’ll find out for sure if the Hall-led Republicans blow their 58-52 advantage in November and the caucus is picking a minority leader . . . which is A LOT different than picking a Speaker.

 (Kyle Melinn is the editor of the Capitol news service MIRS. You can email him at melinnky@gmail.com.)