Let’s talk presidential candidates and where four Michiganders stand
It pains you to read this? It pains me to write this.
Someone is planning their presidential run right now. More than just “someone.” Multiple people. In fact, they’ve been planning it for months.
You think Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was in the Upper Peninsula two weeks ago to check out the fall colors? Or that JD Vance came to Monroe and Howell by chance?
We’ll hear more from them sooner than we want to. Political etiquette is to wait for one election to conclude before the next begins.
That hurdle is officially cleared, so let’s talk about the four current Michigan residents whose names are in circulation for 2028.
Pete Buttigieg. Odds of getting in: 90%.
Upside: Nobody has better name ID among these four than South Bend transplant “Mayor Pete,” whose 2020 Iowa Caucus win was overshadowed by what a shit show the whole spectacle became. His national exposure and experience in running a campaign puts him at the top of this list. He also stayed relevant as the U.S. Transportation Secretary, showing up to a lot of groundbreakings thanks to the $1.2 trillion in federal road and infrastructure bucks Biden threw around in COVID.
Downside: The Traverse City resident is no longer the bright, shiny object he was in 2020. He’s also a bit more cerebral than the politicians of 2026, who repeat vague solutions to complicated problems – like affordability and universal health care. Assuming they stay angry, the electorate simply may be too impatient for Buttigieg.
Gretchen Whitmer. Odds of getting in: 10%
Upside: True, progressives are tagging the fairly popular outgoing Governor as a corporate Democrat on her way out the door, but if there’s a lane for a populist dealmaker, Whitmer could take it. Whitmer has that uncanny ability to shift with the political winds. She shamelessly embraces social fads and can talk comfortably and honestly with just about anyone. If America is looking for someone interesting and relatable, Whitmer fits both.
Downside: The blue folder. Hiding in plain sight in the Oval Office will haunt her if things get too serious as the chattering class questions if she’s ready for the big time. A bigger question, though, is fire in the belly. Do she and her family truly want the bright hot spotlight of a presidential run? Or does taking some time off, serving on some corporate boards and being “of counsel” at some big law firm fit more into her plans? A cabinet post if another Democrat becomes president in 2028? At 55, Whitmer doesn’t need to do a presidential run in 2028 to be relevant in the future.
Elissa Slotkin: Odds of getting in: 33%
Upside: Michigan’s U.S. senator is creating a stage for herself as having the brains to work through the nation’s issues through her national forums and stops in Iowa and Nevada. She’s also showed she’s got the stones to challenge President Donald Trump and other Republicans at an intellectual stratum where few can compete.
Downside: She may be a great candidate at the wrong time. Creating momentum is hard as the non-progressive candidate. This is an era of spontaneous glitz and glamour. The base of the party is moving away from funding the Israeli military and that could be a hard position for her to take.
Abdul El-Sayed: Odds of getting in: 20%
Upside: No Michigan politician has more going for them nationally than El-Sayed. He has shown the country how a progressive Muslim can be successful in a purple state. He represents the heart of the Democratic Party in 2026. He’s shown how dozens and dozens of public discussions can touch the hearts and minds of those desperate for a different direction to the point Trump’s late attacks on him allegedly being a “jihadist” didn’t stick.
Downside: Building a national campaign for president doesn’t happen overnight. If his situation were similar to that of Barack Obama – win a U.S. Senate seat in 2004, start a presidential run in 2006, get elected in 2008 – El-Sayed’s presidential odds would shoot up. But the logistics on a two-year turnaround is difficult. We’re talking about building a national organization while learning a new job amid questions about job-hopping? It is not impossible if the field underwhelms by summer/fall 2027 and cries for an El-Sayed are loud. At the very least, El-Sayed’s endorsement will carry a lot of weight.
