Candidates’ history adds intrigue to likely competitive matchup

The day last month that Curtis Hertel Jr. stepped down as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s legislative liaison — soon after steering an enormous $81 billion budget through the Legislature — Tom Barrett told the Capitol news service MIRS, “If I was responsible for that budget, I would have resigned, too.”

It sounds like a cheap shot, and maybe it was. Hertel was obviously clearing the decks for a 7th Congressional District run. Barrett, his likely Republican opponent, landed a punch.

But these types of zingers are how the two former state Senate colleagues communicate.

Last year, Barrett sponsored a resolution asking federal officials to end mask mandates in commercial airplanes. Hertel responded to this largely toothless proclamation with, “Sorry, I was doing real work today … unlike Tom Barrett.”

The year prior, Barrett sponsored a bill requiring the governor to let legislative leaders know when she was out of state. The Constitution dictates that when the governor isn’t in Michigan, the lieutenant governor is acting governor. Whitmer still doesn’t do a good job giving folks a heads up on all her travels.

Still, Barrett seemed to be obsessing over it, leading Hertel to quip, “If you are wondering where the governor lives, it’s in a space rent-free between the sponsor’s head.”

Photo by Roxanne Frith Lansing Mayor Andy Schor and Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum, who both considered running for the 7th Congressional …

This is what mid-Michigan gets to look forward to these next 16 months.

Other Republicans and Democrats may announce for Congress. They will not suck up the political oxygen Hertel and Barrett will. Barring the catastrophic, these two will be the nominees.

“This should be about as good a congressional race as you’ll find anywhere in the country next year,” said pundit Bill Ballenger.

These two former mid-Michigan legislators have been cordial and respectful when they’ve crossed paths, but “it’s not like we were hanging out at our kids’ birthday parties together,” Barrett pointed out.

Hertel’s schmoozing charm hits a red light at strident conservatives whose deep principled beliefs make them nearly impossible to negotiate with.

For Barrett, the Hertel legacy is synonymous with a Democratic Party. Unlike the person he’s seeking to replace, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, Hertel “doesn’t have the veneer of even pretending to be a moderate.”

When Hertel’s wife, Elizabeth Hertel, was appointed Department of Health and Human Services director, she vowed to stick with the governor’s COVID-19 response plan. This drove Barrett to lead the eventually unsuccessful opposition in the Senate to block her nomination.

Barrett gave Curtis Hertel a heads  up about his plans before going public, professional courtesy and all.

“I’m not going to kneecap the guy, but at the same time, we’re going to have our differences,” he said.

When asked how he would describe his time in the Senate with Barrett, Hertel said:

“Many times, Tom did me a favor because when his side couldn’t work with him, they had to come over and talk to us. So, that gave me the ability to get some things done for people … . I certainly have to thank Tom for that.”

With this type of personal history, it’s easy to see why political observers are expecting the same type of high-energy race as Slotkin-Barrett 2022.

The way the pundits see it, the candidates should be more evenly matched. Neither is starting with $4 million in the bank as Slotkin did in 2022. Neither is an incumbent. Both are white males around the same age. Both are married, Barrett with five kids and Hertel with four.

Their differences will be pointed out again and again. Curtis Hertel Jr. helped orchestrate the Democratic majority in the state Senate. Barrett flew helicopters in the U.S. Army and now has more district-wide name ID because of his 2022 race.

“I expect Curtis to follow a centrist message like Slotkin did and paint Barrett as too extreme,” said Josh Hovey of Martin Waymire public relations.

The 50/50 nature of the 7th District and relatively cheap Lansing media market open it up to  a lot of out-of-state money.

“This will continue to be priority seat across the nation, and the dynamics of the top of the ticket will be critical,” said Jenell Leonard of the Marketing Resource Group, whose husband, Tom, had Barrett as a groomsman in their wedding. “The candidate who focuses on kitchen-table issues is likely to win.”

Adrian Hemond from Grassroots Midwest, a political consulting firm, sees the race coming down to four factors:

1. Can Barrett win in Eaton County, where he served as a state representative and a state senator? He failed to do so against Slotkin in 2022.
2. Can Hertel energize Democrats in areas he previously represented? Slotkin won his seat repeatedly partly by “losing by less in the strongest Republican areas.” Hertel will need to do the same.
3. Can Barrett raise sufficient funds? His candidacy in 2022 relied on the spending of outside groups for survival because Barrett was a poor fundraiser.
4. Top of the ticket impact? The president is old and unpopular. His likely general election opponent, the former president, is also old and unpopular.

“Teasing out the down-ballot impacts of a rematch between those two doddering old geezers is beyond even this wizened political consultant,” Hemond said.

The impact on the 7th District race is uncertain, but what’s clear is Barrett and Hertel will give us all a healthy serving of one-liners from now until Nov. 5, 2024.