GOP counts on James holding onto his congressional seat as they fight to keep their majority

U.S. Rep. John James (L) and former Judge Carl Marlinga (R) | Getty and Ken Coleman photos

It’s a rematch.

In 2022, U.S. Rep. John James (R-Shelby Twp.) earned his Southeast Michigan seat by less than 1 percentage point of the vote. Now he must defend his seat from the same challenger, Democratic former Judge Carl Marlinga, in what could again be the closest U.S. House race in Michigan.

It came down to 1,600 votes the last time around in the race for Michigan’s 10th Congressional District, which consists of southern Macomb County near Detroit, which leans Democratic, and parts of more Republican-leaning central Macomb County and Oakland County.

Trump won Macomb County in 2016 by a large margin of about 50,000 votes, winning the area again in 2020 by about 40,000 votes. Sterling Heights Councilman and Democratic consultant Mike Radtke is predicting that Trump could win Macomb County again, but told the Michigan Advance it’s important to note that the county voted for Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2018 and 2022 so people “are up for being persuaded” politically.

All eyes are on the 10th District, which served as the third-closest House race nationwide in 2022, as the GOP looks to maintain and even strengthen its majority in the House. The Cook Political Report rates the seat as “Lean Republican.” 

However, Marlinga’s campaign is betting on Republicans’ razor-thin influence in the district waning, as well as his longtime service to Macomb County, serving as county prosecutor from 1985 to 2004 then a judge in the area for numerous years. He tells Michigan Advance he got in the race against James in 2022 after seeing the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by supporters of former President Donald Trump who believed his “big lie” that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. 

“When I saw what was being done at the Capitol on Jan. 6, I realized that the MAGA movement went from just right-wing extremists to being a threat to constitutional government, and I just can’t let that go,” Marlinga said.

James, a businessman and combat veteran, was Trump’s pick for the 10th Congressional seat in 2022 when James became Michigan’s first Black Republican congressman. James continues to get a boost from Trump, when he was given a speaking slot during the Republican National Convention in July. James spoke in support of Trump’s presidential run, saying, “If you don’t vote for Donald Trump, you ain’t Black,” amid Trump’s campaign boasting that it’s seeing a growth of interest from young Black men. 

James shares many of the same talking points as Trump, voicing his concerns for border security and foreign enemies, while decrying the economy under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, calling for solutions to lower growing costs of living.

It’s going to be a tight race and James knows it, campaign Communications Director Noah Sadlier told the Michigan Advance. Sadlier said James’ victory will come from voters resonating with him over Marlinga on the issues.

“Over the last two years, I have worked tirelessly to push back against the failed policies coming out of the Biden-Harris Administration,” James said in a statement to news outlets. “Four years of runaway inflation, open borders, and chaos at home and abroad has made people less safe and less financially secure. I have worked to improve our economy, stop the crime crisis, secure our borders, and restore faith in the American Dream once again — and I will never stop fighting for you.”

Marlinga has said in the past that Democrats didn’t expect the 2022 race to be as close as it was and there was negligible investment from national Democrats into the race in 2022, where he was outspent by James. Now Marlinga is backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which pledged fundraising and other support for Marlinga’s campaign to flip the seat.

“I’m feeling very good about the possibilities of winning,” Marlinga said. “It would be foolish to say that this is going to be easy. It would be wise to say it’s going to be close. But there’s kind of a cautious optimism that I have about this campaign. Everything about this campaign is going so much better than what happened in 2022 when basically I tied.”

James has been running ads accusing Marlinga of using the court system to put rapists “on equal footing with their victims” and touting a comment Marlinga said to The Detroit News in 2022, where he called Michigan’s automotive industry a “dying industry,” as a disqualifier for Marlinga to seek office in Michigan. 

In a campaign ad discussing the comment, James echoed a talking point Trump has been using in his many visits to Michigan this election year, saying Harris and other environmental extremists like Marlinga are attempting to ban gas-powered cars and give automotive jobs aways to foreign countries. However, policy experts told FactCheck.org that automakers would have flexibility in how they meet the new standards, including the option to make internal combustion engines more efficient.

Two of Marlinga’s main campaign issues are improving the criminal justice system and harnessing the natural pull of innovation when it comes to energy-efficient vehicles and placing the district in a position to financially gain from the changing times.

Marlinga said while James is wasting time trying to twist his words about calling for innovation in auto manufacturing where Michigan needs to remain on the forefront of clean energy innovation or be left behind, voters will not be tricked into forgetting what James really stands for.

“John James called abortion genocide, he opposed exceptions for rape and incest,” Marlinga said. “The Republicans would dearly like to forget their platform and their history about being the party that opposes personal freedom as far as reproductive rights, but they are stuck with the reality that that’s who they are.”

Both at the presidential level and the 10th District, races in Michigan will be won in the privacy of the voting booth, where Marlinga predicted Republican women are going to break ranks with their party because he said it doesn’t value them or represent their best interests when it comes to reproductive health care decisions.

James’ campaign points to his record, noting legislation he has introduced since entering office that have made it through the House, including bills aimed to connect people to telehealth mental health services, investigate human trafficking that happens in-part outside of U.S. borders and examine the security of the Soo Locks to preserve the economic wellbeing of Michigan and the rest of the country that relies on the locks.

Additionally Sadlier points at federal dollars that James has brought from congress back to Michigan including millions for urban development, as well as millions worth of investments into the area’s recreational economy.

Many of Marlinga’s priorities center around protecting natural resources as the district includes Lake St. Clair, a recreation hub that provides more than 18,000 jobs to the region and is responsible for a $1.6 billion economic impact. Other areas of importance for Marlinga are protecting Michigan’s constitutional right to abortion and implementing gun control policies.

As for efforts that particularly impact the 10th District, Marlinga wants to propose separated sewer systems nationwide to limit some of the contamination issues Lake St. Clair has been dealing with in recent years.