Poll: Democratic female turnout could be dampened without abortion measure on Michigan ballot

Hundreds rally at the state Capitol for the MI Body MI Choice event on Oct. 2, 2021 | Allison R. Donahue

Reproductive rights advocates in Michigan may be the victims of their own success when it comes to electing Democrats in November. 

A new poll of women voters released Thursday by KFF, a nonprofit health policy research, polling and news organization, shows that reproductive rights is boosting Democratic women’s eagerness to vote in states with potential abortion-related ballot initiatives. However, states like Michigan, in which abortion rights were enshrined by voters in the state constitution in 2022, women are less motivated to vote.

“The greater motivation to vote among Democratic women voters in states that may have ballot initiatives occurs even though they are no more satisfied with President [Joe] Biden’s job performance than Democratic women voters in states without similar initiatives – a sign that the ballot issues may be driving interest,” stated a news release.

That could spell trouble for Biden in those states this November, as well as other Democrats on the ballot, who are counting on high turnout among their supporters. 

The national KFF Survey of Women Voters, and companion surveys in Arizona and Michigan, were conducted online and by telephone May 23 through June 5 among a nationally representative sample of 3,102 U.S. women registered voters in English and Spanish. Separate samples of 928 registered women voters in Arizona and 876 registered women voters in Michigan were also polled, with a margin of error ranging between 3 and 5%. 

Abortion initiatives drive turnout

KFF says that as of June 18, there are as many as 11 states where voters may be deciding on abortion access in November, including four states where abortion is already set to appear on the ballot. 

In those states, more than half (53%) of Democratic women voters in the national survey say that they are more motivated to vote this year than in past elections, while in other states, an even high percentage (57%) say they are just as motivated as in past elections or less motivated to vote this year.

In their state-specific surveys, KFF found an even greater disparity in motivated women voters.

In Michigan, which approved a constitutional amendment to protect abortion access in 2022, 60% of women voters – including 69% of Democratic women voters – say that because the abortion access issue in their state has already been settled, they are largely focused on inflation, one issue in which President Biden struggles among his Democratic base.

By contrast in Arizona, which is likely to have a constitutional amendment protecting abortion access on November’s ballot, 60% of Democratic women voters —  and 74% of all women voters under the age of 30 — say having the initiative on the ballot would make them more motivated to vote.

Another potential bad sign for Democrats is that in states like Michigan without an abortion initiative on the ballot, 80% of Republican women voters say they will definitely vote in November, while just 72% of Democratic women voters say they will do the same. That compares with roughly equal rates of Republican and Democratic women voters in states with potential ballot initiatives (82% and 83%, respectively). 

Priority issues for women voters

As to the issues that women voters said would most impact their vote, inflation topped the list, with four in ten saying it mattered the most in the 2024 presidential race. Only about one in five (22%) said threats to democracy was the most salient issue for them, with immigration and border security (13%), abortion (10%), and gun policy (4%) rounding out the top five.

And while inflation is among the top voting issues for many key groups of women voters — including Black women, Hispanic women, younger women, Democratic women, and Republican women overall — partisanship and age factored into the priority that women placed on an issue.

While more than one-third of older Republican women cite immigration (36%) and inflation (37%) as their top issue, half of older Democratic women say “threats to democracy” is the most important issue determining their vote. In fact, Democratic women overall, are more likely than Republican women and independent women to say threats to democracy are their most important voting issue.

Biden in Michigan

In Michigan, 74% of Democratic women voters who were polled approved of Biden’s overall handling of his job, although on specific issues some cracks appeared.

While overwhelming majorities approved of his handling of student loan repayment (78%), abortion and reproductive health issues (76%), health care affordability (75%), and immigration and border security (65%), inflation and Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war was significantly less popular.

On inflation, only 53% gave a positive rating, while only 47% did so on the Gaza issue, making that issue one in which more Democratic women disapproved of his job performance than offered support.

But as the poll revealed, inflation is a key issue that may drive Democratic women to the polls in November if an abortion initiative isn’t on the ballot.

Project 2025

What wasn’t asked in the survey was whether women voters were aware of Project 2025, a blueprint for a second Trump term in the White House created by the far-right Heritage Foundation. 

In addition to its detailed plans to broadly enhance executive authority including deploying the U.S. military to quell domestic protests, dismantling the FBI and Department of Homeland Security, and removing sexual and gender protected discrimination, the document also calls for a national ban on abortion, which if passed by Congress, would supercede any state level protections. 

If elected, Trump could also simply use an executive order to revive the Comstock Act, an obscure 1873 anti-obscenity statute, and ban the mailing of abortion pills like mifepristone — the most common method of abortion in the U.S.

Michigan Senate race

The polling also asked the Michigan women voters who they would vote for if the 2024 Senate elections in Michigan were held today and the candidates were Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers.

Forty-five percent said they’d vote for Slotkin, who supports abortion rights, while just 30% said they’d vote for Rogers, who opposes abortion rights and said on WKAR’s “Off the Record” in March 2023 he probably would not have voted yes on the reproductive rights constitutional amendment..

Slotkin is facing actor Hill Harper of Detroit in the August Democratic primary, while Rogers is facing off against former U.S. Justin Amash (I-Cascade Twp.), physician Sherry O’Donnell and businessman Sandy Pensler in the GOP primary.

Other key findings 

Two-thirds (67%) of women voters identify as pro-choice, and three in four (74%) say they want abortion to be legal in at least some cases, though partisanship plays a major role in determining support for specific policies. For example, while 57% of Republican women voters support a national ban on abortions after 15 weeks, 89% of Democratic and 74% of independent women voters support a law guaranteeing a national right to abortion.

Some policies are popular among women voters across partisan groups. For instance, there is consistent majority support among Democratic, independent and Republican women voters for laws protecting access to abortion for patients experiencing pregnancy-related emergencies, and for a federal law protecting access to abortion in cases of rape or incest in all states.

While most women who voted in 2020 say they are going to pick the same candidate this year, about one in six women who voted for President Biden in 2020 say they will either not vote or will vote for a different candidate this year, including 7% who say they plan to vote for former President Donald Trump. By contrast, just 1% of women voters who voted for Trump in 2020 say they plan on voting for Biden in 2024.

A path to victory for Biden would need to include strong majority support from Black women voters, a group that he won overwhelmingly in 2020. At this time, the national poll shows that a majority of Black women voters say they plan on voting for President Biden (70%) in November, though one in six (17%) say they may either stay home on Election Day or vote for a third-party candidate. For half of Black women (53%), the most important issue determining their vote is inflation, and many (55%) disapprove of how Biden has handled the issue as president.

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