As speculation peaks in wake of debate, Whitmer remains a key Biden reelection surrogate

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at a rally for former Vice President Joe Biden in Detroit, March 9, 2020 | Andrew Roth

As President Joe Biden faces a fractious path to reelection, made even more so by his poor debate performance, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s role is now center stage in not only holding the Democratic coalition of voters together, but also energizing them heading into the November election.

That is, unless you believe speculation that she may be on the shortlist to replace Biden, and has had to tamp down any idea of a “Draft Gretch” campaign, all of which avoids the likelihood that pushing aside Vice President Kamala Harris would shatter the very coalition Whitmer is trying to keep unified.

“She is definitely the talk of the town, especially when she dropped her new book on the day of the debate and was in California for a Star-studded debate party,” said Andrea Bitely, a GOP consultant and founder of Lansing-based Bitely Communications.

Whitmer, who last year was named a co-chair of Biden’s reelection campaign, was also a finalist for the vice presidency in 2020, the “very intense process” that she discussed with the Advance in May. She and Biden have developed a friendship, with the president being one of the first to call her after the arrest of suspects in the 2020 kidnapping and assassination plot against her. During that interview, Whitmer also vowed to stay governor through the end of her term.

Bitely, who has served in a variety of communications roles, including as a spokesperson for former Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette, whom Whitmer defeated in the 2018 gubernatorial race, told the Michigan Advance that Whitmer has three paths forward in the fallout from the debate. 

“In the unlikely scenario that Biden decides to bow out, she is definitely on the shortlist and will have to battle it out on the convention floor against Harris, [California Gov. Gavin] Newsom, and maybe [Pennsylvania Gov. Josh] Shapiro,” Bitley said. “The second scenario is if Biden wins, she has two years left as governor, but it’s four years until the next presidential election. Will Biden make her a cabinet member to keep her profile up? Only if she works hard to make sure he wins Michigan. Right now, she is doing everything she can to toe the line.”

Bitely says the third scenario is one that would be best for Whitmer’s long-term political prospects, although not one she would publicly acknowledge: Trump winning in November. 

“She could then use the last two years of her time as governor fighting with Trump, making herself increasingly visible and his foil. She capitalized on the “woman from Michigan” comment with fundraising and increased notoriety, I can only imagine how her team would set her up for success during a second Trump term. I would imagine a significant number of lawsuits against the federal government, many Sunday morning [talk show] appearances, time in early primary states and then two solid years to campaign,” said Bitely.

Of course, that assessment assumes another Trump term would be a typical presidency, albeit a highly conservative one. But that’s an assumption many aren’t willing to make, especially in light of Monday’s Supreme Court ruling that said U.S. presidents enjoy full immunity from criminal charges for their official “core constitutional” acts, which in a dissenting opinion, Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote makes the president “immune from criminal prosecution if he used the trappings of his office to violate criminal law.”

That’s not to mention Project 2025, a blueprint for a second Trump term that would seek to ban abortion nationwide, restrict access to contraception, force would-be immigrants to be detained in concentration camps, and deploy the U.S. military to quell domestic protests, to name just a few of its goals. And then there’s the rhetoric coming from the Trump campaign, and the candidate himself, who has said he doesn’t want to be a dictator “Except for day one,” while also saying if reelected he would have Biden indicted, as well as many of his other political opponents.

Whitmer even referenced those potential actions in her statement supporting Biden the day after the debate.

“Donald Trump is a convicted felon whose focus is on Donald Trump. And he’s told us what he will do if he gets back into the White House. He will take his attacks on women’s reproductive rights even further, try to get rid of the Affordable Care Act and spike families’ health costs, and send auto jobs to China,” she said.

However, she had a much more direct response on Monday to a report in Politico which quoted an unnamed source as saying she told the Biden campaign Michigan was no longer “winnable” for the president.

“Anyone who claims I would say that we can’t win Michigan is full of shit. Let’s go,” she posted, along with a link to her “Fight Like Hell” federal political action committee (PAC), which she formed last year.

Anyone who claims I would say that we can’t win Michigan is full of shit. Let’s go. https://t.co/1K5E6K7rJu pic.twitter.com/04c3vGfhO5

— Gretchen Whitmer (@gretchenwhitmer) July 1, 2024

Also helping dispel the idea that Democrats are in freefall following the debate is the money continuing to flow in from donors.

Charles Gaba is a health care analyst who also raises money for hundreds of Democrats at the state and federal level. He told the Advance that fundraising has spiked since Thursday.

“I was averaging around ~$3,000/day for the week or so prior to the debate on Thursday; this jumped to $11K on Thursday night, $16K Friday and over $4K Saturday before a massive $55K yesterday [Sunday],” he said in a direct message via X.

Gaba did note that Sunday was both the end of the month and the end of the second quarter, which normally will see increased spending. However, he reported his efforts were up 86% versus this same time four years ago during the 2020 cycle.

Either way, Whitmer remains a political tour de force who Bitely notes has been deployed to key states and in front of key constituencies for not just Biden’s campaign, but Democrats across the country.

“I just saw something recently with her and Chasten Buttigieg in Milwaukee referencing comments that former President Trump had made about Milwaukee being not a lovely place,” said Bitely, referring to the husband of U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. “That gave us some insight into how much travel she’s doing. Wisconsin, like Michigan, is also a swing state. They could elect Trump or they could elect Biden. We don’t know what they’re going to do, so her presence in a state like Wisconsin is very telling.”

Whitmer’s appearance at the Out for Biden event followed her participation earlier that day in Madison, Wisc., on a panel discussion on abortion hosted by the Biden-Harris campaign. The discussion also featured fellow Democrat, Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers. Afterward, Whitmer told reporters that the message she is helping the campaign deliver is that there is only going to be one choice in November to protect reproductive rights for everyone.

“If there’s a national abortion ban, there’s nothing we can do at the state levels, and that’s why even in a state like Michigan it is so important that we are continuing to organize and continuing to remind people that Joe Biden is the only person on the ballot who can win the White House and will protect these fundamental rights,” she said.

The Wisconsin events were just the latest trips across the country made by Whitmer, including earlier in the week to support local Democrats in Illinois, June 3 in North Carolina, June 8 in El Paso, Texas, to speak at the Texas Democratic Party Convention, and at a coffee shop in Phoenix, Ariz., on April 3 for a Biden-Harris campaign event that included Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes, a vocal abortion advocate.

Most recently, the governor spoke last week at the Aspen Ideas Festival in Colorado where she weighed in on recent rulings from the U.S. Supreme Court on mifepristone and the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act (EMTALA), saying “some are breathing a sigh of relief,” but adding, “They’re temporary. None of this is settled.”

And as busy as she has been, some pundits say it needs to be even more.

“There are very few politicians of either political party with favorable approval ratings and a national profile,” said Adrian Hemond, a Democratic consultant who heads up Lansing-based Grassroots Midwest. “She’s the best surrogate the Biden campaign has, and they should frankly use her even more.”

Hilarie DeCesare, a regional political director for the Maricopa County Democratic Party in Arizona, attended the Phoenix gathering in April and told the Advance that Whitmer was clearly the headliner for that event. 

“That’s who everybody was there to see. She was the draw,” DeCesare said. 

DeCesare added that Whitmer’s experience in leading Michigan Democrats to victory in 2022 is something of which Democrats across the country have taken note. 

“I feel like she’s really kind of set the blueprint for states like Arizona where we were thrown back recently 160 years to an 1864 abortion ban when women couldn’t even vote. We weren’t even a state; age of consent was 10 years old. So, I appreciated that she came here and she’s working to mobilize voters like she did in Michigan,” she said.

The blueprint Whitmer laid down for victory in 2022 was largely built around her fierce support of abortion rights, which she articulated to cheers at the Mackinac Policy Conference that year, and was best embodied by her statement on social media that she was “fighting like hell for every Michigander’s right to abortion.” It was also lent a helping hand by a citizen-led redistricting process that voters had approved in 2018 which resulted in more competitive districts, allowing Democrats to retake the Legislature for the first time in nearly 40 years.

Whitmer spotlighted the abortion issue last year when she launched the Fight Like Hell political action committee (PAC) to raise money for Democratic candidates who are “unapologetic in their fight for working people and their basic freedoms” heading into the 2024 election. The PAC gave Whitmer a practical application to funnel support, in the form of money, to key Democratic candidates and help build public support for the Biden-Harris reelection campaign.

Michigan congressional candidates receiving an endorsement through the PAC include U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), as well as former state Sen. Curtis Hertel (D-Lansing) and Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City). But Whitmer has also branched out to lend her support to candidates outside the state, including U.S. Reps. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.), Susan Wild (D-Penn.) and Steven Horsford (D-N.V.), as well as U.S. Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mon.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Jacky Rosen (D-N.V.).

The PAC’s creation also continued to burnish Whitmer’s reputation as a leading contender for the 2028 presidential campaign, which has only grown since she was among those under consideration to be Biden’s 2020 running mate before he selected Harris. There has also been feverish speculation that Whitmer should replace Harris on this year’s ticket, and even some analysts who contend the only chance Democrats have to win in 2024 is if Whitmer replaces Biden.

Pundits aside, the chances of any change this late in the election season seem, at best, highly unlikely. But that hasn’t slowed questions about Whitmer’s 2028 aspirations — and likely have only served to heighten them.

While she has officially downplayed her 2028 plans, Whitmer has slyly acknowledged them, as she did in March at the annual Gridiron Club and Foundation dinner in Washington, D.C., when she closed her speech by saying, “See you in 2029.”

At the Aspen Ideas Festival, she was asked point-blank about a 2028 run.

“I’m making no plans right now and then I’ll see what happens next. … I know enough about myself … maybe there’s someone I’m gonna be excited about. Maybe another scenario. That’s as far as I am down that path,” she said.

But the speculation that there is a path to the White House for Whitmer has only been stoked by the planned release next month of her book, “True Gretch: What I’ve Learned About Life, Leadership, and Everything in Between,” a traditional step on the list of items used to build a national profile. She told a June 22 New York Times podcast, it was less a memoir, and more of a handbook on how to navigate the negativity of our current political environment and retain a positive outlook.

“This is going to be another heavy year, 2024.  Sure, it’s going to feel very dark at times with the political rhetoric and this important election coming up and I thought if I can put some light out into the world right now, maybe you can laugh at my expense or maybe there’s a little inspiration here that’ll help you get through whatever you were navigating,” she said.

In that same podcast, Whitmer was asked about her plans for 2028, noting that she is term-limited and will finish as Michigan’s governor in 2026. While she demurred from giving a yes or no answer, Whitmer again hinted that as a member of Generation X (she turns 53 in August), she would fit the bill for what kind of president would be needed.  

“Our parents’ generation had a lot of excess [Baby Boomers] and certainly I worry about so many of the decisions that were made prior to my kids’ generation and what they are worried about. And so l’m hopeful that we can really move the needle, whether it’s around bringing down our nation’s debt or ensuring that we are active when it comes to climate and solidifying and protecting individual rights,” she said. “These are really the existential issues that my kids’ generation is worried about, gun violence, etc.  So I’m hopeful that in 2028 we see a Gen Xer running for the White House. Let someone from my generation … take the mantle.”

But for now, sly hints are all Whitmer is giving, as she pours her efforts into getting Biden reelected. According to Fight Like Hell PAC, that has included nearly a dozen events leading up to the Jan. 22 anniversary of Roe v. Wade that was overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2022, in which she laid out the stark difference between Biden and former President Donald Trump on reproductive rights. There also have been at least 30 voter activation events prior to Michigan’s Feb. 27 presidential primary, as she worked to bring the president a solid victory despite an anti-Biden campaign that targeted his support for Israel in its ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza.

Whitmer’s PAC says making the case for a second Biden term is absolutely aligned with her determination to keep Michigan on the path charted by the Democratic takeover of the Legislature in 2022.

“Whether it’s lowering insulin costs for Michigan families, bringing back manufacturing jobs and supply chains, or standing up for reproductive freedom, Gov. Whitmer has seen firsthand what a difference it makes when the president of the United States has Michigan’s back like Joe Biden does. Meanwhile, Donald Trump would ban abortion nationwide if he got the chance, ship auto jobs back to China, and spike families’ health care costs. Gov. Whitmer is doing everything she can leading up to November to make sure Joe Biden is reelected and can keep helping her deliver for Michigan families,” said Helen Hare, a spokesperson for the Fight Like Hell PAC.

Whitmer has also continued to be active in Michigan politics, although her endorsement track record was mixed. 

In January, she endorsed two Democrats in special primary elections following the resignation of two members after they won local mayoral races. In the metro Detroit state House districts, Whitmer rallied behind Mai Xiong in the 13th District and Andrea Rutkowski in the 25th District. While Xiong won her primary, Rutkowski lost to Peter Herzberg. Whitmer then endorsed Herzberg, and both he and Xiong went on to win the special general election, which had been called after two House Democrats won mayoral races in their districts. That meant the state House stayed in Democrats’ hands. 

She’s also continued to do more personal voter outreach efforts like her “Grillin’ With Gretchen” events that she held during the 2022 campaign across the state. She held her first one for 2024 on Sunday in Lansing, doubling as a Biden-Harris event, designed to talk with and organize voters ahead of the November election.

Bitely says Whitmer’s get-out-the-vote efforts are absolutely necessary in a year which will not explicitly feature issues like abortion or voting rights on the ballot, as they were in 2022, and to which recent polling has indicated may create a motivation deficit.

“Not having a significant ballot initiative on the ballot this go around is definitely changing things and quite honestly is forcing people to work harder to make sure that certain demographics, mostly college-educated women, are actually getting out to vote and they’re not just saying, ‘Oh, Trump and Biden are both terrible candidates. I’ll just set it out this year.’ You have to actively work to remind people how those candidates feel as opposed to the reproductive rights conversation being a major part of that,” said Bitely. “So having Gretchen Whitmer’s potential future on the line means that she is going to be out working hard both here in Michigan and in other states where reproductive rights are a big conversation.”

Often, however, that conversation revolves around concerns that voters have about Biden’s age, which were only heightened by his debate performance. When asked about that issue prior to the debate by the New York Times, Whitmer said that while it was important to acknowledge the essential truth that both candidates are “80ish” (Biden is 81; Trump is 78), it was also essential to point out the differences. 

“President Biden has a record of delivering and that’s the kind of leadership I think that we will see for the next four years if he’s reelected. On the contrary, the other 80ish-year-old is someone who has not articulated any sort of vision for our country. Someone who has been more about dividing us. Someone who, when they don’t like someone, will attack them and mobilize their supporters to threaten them. Someone who has only talked about grievance, and I think people want a leader who is going to make their lives better.”

The problem that Democrats have right now in communicating that difference is something that many see Whitmer uniquely qualified to do. DeCesare certainly thinks so, telling the Advance that Whitmer’s ability to connect on an authentic level on heavy issues like reproductive rights makes her irreplaceable as a campaign advocate.

“She personalizes this issue, and in the world of social justice and human rights that I’ve been in for quite some time now, we understand, and she understands, that in order to make any progress on any issue, you have to put those who are most affected at the forefront “ she said, noting Whitmer has shared her story of being sexually assaulted while in college. “Many people have seen this issue as black and white for so long. Either you’re for it or you’re against it, and I think Gov. Whitmer’s approach, bringing people in who have experienced this, who can really personalize it for people, is going to motivate people and I think, perhaps change some minds, as well.”

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