Harris effect in Michigan may mean most to down-ballot Dems

Judith Daubenmier’s first dose of political activism came when she volunteered for John Kerry’s presidential campaign in 2004.

In May, the Livingston County Democratic Party chair earned her first selection as a Democratic delegate for Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, which includes Ingham County. That means she’ll vote for the party’s presidential nominee during the virtual roll call before next month’s national convention in Chicago.

Until President Biden bowed out, Daubenmier was sure she would support him.

“I felt sad for him and had a lot of empathy for what he was going through and what it must have felt like to make that decision,” she said. “It took a while to work through that — but then I started thinking about the future.”

What might that political future look like for Michiganders?

Assuming Vice President Kamala Harris locks up the Democratic nomination, Michigan State University political science Professor Matt Grossman said the pivot still won’t necessarily put the state’s 15 electoral votes out of reach for either party.

“To the extent that Biden had a relative advantage over Harris, it would have been among older white voters, which Michigan has a lot more of than other states,” Grossman said. “So, the switch does not necessarily help in Michigan as much as it helped elsewhere. And there certainly still is the danger of losing for Democrats.”

The potential trade-off comes in Harris’ expected appeal among younger and minority voters. In February, 13% of the state’s Democratic primary voters selected the “uncommitted” option to protest Biden’s handling of the Israeli war. Many of those votes came from the 500,000 Arab Americans in Michigan — the most of any state — and college-age adults.

Thasin Sardar, an Islamic Society of Greater Lansing trustee, said Harris’ expected candidacy could chip away at that protest vote.

“I do see some attrition of some who were motivated to join the movement not only because of Gaza but also because Biden was not a winning candidate,” he said. “I’m pretty sure they all care for Gaza, but I think they may also see Harris as having a good chance.”

Before Biden dropped out, some thought he was also starting to lose ground with Black voters, long considered one of his strongest electoral demographics. Could that leak be stymied with Harris — who is half-Black and half-Indian — atop the ticket?

Daubenmier thinks so. But it’s still too early to tell for Michigan State University associate political science Professor Corwin Smidt.

“That’s one group that one would assume she can cement support with, but there’s a little concern about how much of a connection she’ll have with the Black voters in Michigan, which tend to also be older,” Smidt said.

She may earn new supporters elsewhere, however.

“There is an Asian-American community in suburban Detroit that does seem a little less unified politically,” he added. “The fact that she’s half-Indian American could resonate with some of those groups that you don’t traditionally see as active in Michigan politics,” Smidt said.

Judith Daubenmeier

Despite these unknowns, Grossman predicted that Michigan’s electoral coalition would be “90% to 95% the same.”

Smidt agreed but added that the implications of Biden’s withdrawal may be more visible in who is and isn’t representing Michigan next year.

“When it comes to Michigan, it’s not like this is like a sea change, but it does sort of shuffle the chess pieces or the type of communication you might see,” Smidt said.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s future is among the pieces that may be in play. While Whitmer has twice stated that she isn’t interested in becoming Harris’ running mate, her potential to help turn a key swing state blue means she’ll remain in the conversation.

“We have evidence that home state VP candidates do matter, but we’re talking about a very small 1% or so,” Grossman explained. “Were Whitmer in it, that would still make a specific difference in Michigan. Now, there are many other actors on that list, so, more than likely, it will go to someone else.”

If Whitmer stays put, Harris’ rise could still impact Michigan’s future, including in the race for Michigan’s 7th U.S. House District, which includes Ingham County. Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr. and Republican Tom Barrett want to succeed three-term Rep. Elissa Slotkin. The latter, a Democrat, is expected to face former Rep. Mike Rogers for the U.S. Senate, pending the outcome of the Aug. 6 primary.

Based on a poll by the nonpartisan firm Noble Predictive Insights conducted July 8 to 11, Barrett leads Hertel 48% to 41%, with 11% of the survey’s 532 respondents still undecided. The same polls suggested the Senate race would be much closer, with Rogers leading Slotkin by one point at 48%, with 4% undecided.

Grossman said Harris’ increased popularity with younger and minority voters could change the trajectory of these down-ballot races. For one, her candidacy may promote greater turnout, theoretically bolstering Democrats.

“In general, there’s an extremely strong relationship between the presidential vote and votes for all other partisan offices on the same day. It could be two or three points, but that could be important in determining the winner of those elections,” Grossman said.

With Biden out, Smidt added that Hertel’s odds of shoring up younger or moderate-leaning voters may also be boosted.

“There’s sort of a social media cache with Kamala Harris that could mobilize younger people more,” Smidt said. “Because this is a split district, Michigan State voters alone can be a decisive factor.”

Still, Smidt views Michigan’s Senate matchup as “more important than the presidential race.”

“You have Slotkin, who’s got some vulnerabilities in her base in terms of Israel and Gaza, and Rogers, who is seen as kowtowing to Trump in some ways. To me, that race has much more to say about the state party’s future and how both parties look coming into 2026 and 2028 than it does the presidential election,” Smidt said.

Grossman said the results of that race could ultimately echo that of the presidential contest.

“If it were literally 50-50 in the presidential race, you’d still expect Slotkin to win, but not much more than that. She pretty much needs Democrats to either win Michigan or come close,” he said.

State Sen. Sarah Anthony, D-Lansing, believes Democrats can win big if they focus on issues like inflation, the cost of living, the environment and reproductive rights.

“When Harris has come to the state, by and large, it’s been around reproductive health care, which was a defining issue two years ago when the Democratic trifecta was elected and continues to be at the top of mind for Michiganders, particularly women,” Anthony said.

Daubenmier agreed, noting that she hopes Michigan voters will get behind Harris.

“Some people will feel more interested in the campaign now because they wanted to see a new face. They wanted to see someone younger, and I think that will help us tremendously,” she said.

— TYLER SCHNEIDER