Now it’s the Dems who look good in state legislative races Nov. 5

Back in February, I wrote in this space how Michigan House Republicans were in the driver’s seat to regain the majority of seats this fall.

The Democrats captured a slim 56-54 majority in 2022, thanks to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s reelection victory and the success of an abortion legalization constitutional amendment.

But with President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket and Republicans scoring quality candidates in Downriver, Macomb County and Northern Michigan — areas where Donald Trump was expected to do well — they faced strong head winds.

Until it didn’t.

Biden’s decision to quit in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris has me revisiting my earlier prediction.

Harris is reigniting young voters and women in Oakland County, in particular. The polling shows it. The August primary turnout in key areas showed it. The hastily called rally at Detroit Metro Airport last week drawing 15,000 (that Trump is trying to claim was AI-generated) showed it.

Republicans need Harris’ recent popularity surge to be the “honeymoon phase” they’re hoping it is or Democrats are going to expand their majority this cycle, a prospect I didn’t consider a possibility just a month ago.

Some incumbents likely will lose their seats this November. History puts the average number of incumbent state House candidates defeated in a General Election over the last 50 years to be about four.

Now it’s becoming more likely that Republicans will lose their seats than Democrats.

The Democrats always had a money advantage over Republicans. Now they have money AND enthusiasm.

First, let’s talk money. Michigan House Democrats have more of it. They’ve already spent nearly twice as much as the Republicans, too. A lot of it is coming from out of state, but it spends the same.

In some 50/50 districts, like the Traverse City-based 103rd, the incumbent and the House Democratic Fund have reserved so much advertising time on network TV between now and Election Day, it’ll be too expensive for Republicans to compete effectively.

In other districts the Republicans targeted, like the Downriver-based 27th, Monroe County 31st and the Upper Peninsula-based 109th, the Democrats also have more than a $1 million in ad time reserved if the Republicans decide to play there.

Here’s another way to look at the money advantage.

At MIRS, we tracked contributions in 21 politically competitive House districts. The Democrat outraised the Republican in all but one seat, the one held by the minority leader.

Then there are the primary results. Now, don’t take too much stock in this because many factors contribute to why turnout in one primary is higher than the other, but ... of 20 politically competitive House seats, the Democratic candidate or candidates received more votes in 14.

If voter turnout in the August primary was stretched out to all 110 House districts, Democrats would have a 60-50 majority. If voter turnout in the 2022 August primary was stretched out to all 110 House districts, Republicans would have had a 60-50 majority.

Momentum is on the Democrats’ side and will be for at least another week as the Democratic convention kicks off in Chicago next week.

What happens when Harris finally does an unscripted interview with a real journalist? How does she do in a one-on-one debate with Donald Trump?

Republicans are hoping it’ll expose some wild-eyed liberal or someone who’s flip-flopping from the progressive agenda of her 2020 presidential campaign.

Even if it’s one of the two, the results won’t be as catastrophic as what happened to Biden, whose cognitive decline was covered up until it couldn’t be hidden anymore.

Trump knows it. He doesn’t have an insulting nickname that’s catching with Harris. He’s struggling.

The ol’ “Crooked Hillary” thing worked in 2016 because Clinton’s background made it easy to presume corruption. “Sleepy Joe” Biden worked because ... we already covered that.

The longer Harris soars in polls, the more state House districts the Democrats could conceivably play in.

Of course, with a Democratic House majority, it’ll be another two years of Democrats having unchecked political power in Lansing.

(Email Kyle Melinn of the Capitol news service MIRS at melinnky@gmail.com.)